Tag: Retirement income

  • Pretirement 103: Decide What “Enough” Means

    Pretirement 103: Decide What “Enough” Means

    How much money do you need to retire?

    It’s one of the most common retirement questions.

    One million dollars?

    Two million?

    Ten times your salary?

    Twenty-five times your annual spending?

    There are plenty of rules of thumb, and some can be useful as starting points.

    But none of them can tell you what enough means for you.

    Enough isn’t an account balance.

    It’s the point at which the resources available to you can reasonably support the life you want to live, with enough margin to handle uncertainty.

    That definition is less convenient than a single number.

    It’s also much more useful.

    Start With the Life, Not the Portfolio

    In our previous Pretirement article, we asked readers to figure out what they actually spend.

    That’s where defining enough begins.

    Suppose two households each have $1 million saved for retirement.

    The first expects to spend $60,000 a year and will receive $50,000 from Social Security and pensions.

    The second expects to spend $100,000 and will receive $35,000 from Social Security.

    They have identical retirement savings.

    They don’t have identical retirement situations.

    The first household needs its savings to fill a relatively modest annual gap.

    The second needs its savings to provide a much larger portion of household income.

    Asking whether $1 million is enough therefore misses the most important information.

    Enough depends on what the money needs to do.

    Calculate the Gap

    A useful way to begin is surprisingly simple.

    Estimate what your retirement lifestyle will cost.

    Then identify the dependable income you expect from sources such as Social Security and pensions.

    The difference is the amount the rest of your resources need to provide.

    Imagine that you expect retirement to cost $75,000 a year.

    Social Security and a pension are expected to provide $55,000.

    That leaves a $20,000 annual gap.

    Now your retirement savings have a job.

    They don’t necessarily need to support a $75,000 lifestyle.

    They need to help support the portion of that lifestyle not covered by other income.

    That’s a much more useful way to think about a retirement portfolio.

    But Don’t Stop at the Gap

    The calculation isn’t quite as simple as:

    Spending minus dependable income equals required withdrawals.

    Taxes matter.

    Healthcare matters.

    Inflation matters.

    Investment results matter.

    Large irregular expenses matter.

    And retirement may last for decades.

    Your income and expenses may also change at different times.

    Perhaps you retire several years before Social Security begins.

    Perhaps a pension starts immediately.

    Perhaps a mortgage disappears five years into retirement.

    Perhaps travel spending is highest during the first decade.

    Later, required distributions from retirement accounts may affect taxable income.

    Retirement isn’t one financial year repeated thirty times.

    Defining enough means thinking about the whole retirement rather than solving only the first year.

    A Withdrawal Rate Isn’t the Definition of Enough

    Retirement planning often uses withdrawal rates to estimate how much income a portfolio might support.

    These can be useful planning tools.

    For example, someone might begin with an assumption that a certain percentage of retirement savings could be withdrawn during the first year and then test how that approach behaves under different assumptions.

    But a withdrawal rate isn’t a law of nature.

    A 4 percent assumption isn’t automatically safe for everyone.

    A 5 percent assumption isn’t automatically reckless.

    The appropriate starting point depends on factors such as retirement age, expected retirement length, investment allocation, flexibility in spending, other income, taxes, inflation, and future market returns.

    PreTire can use a withdrawal assumption to create a starting estimate.

    Then you test it.

    The assumption helps you ask the question.

    It doesn’t answer the question for you.

    Enough Includes a Margin

    If your retirement plan works only when everything goes exactly as expected, you probably haven’t finished planning.

    Markets fall.

    Inflation happens.

    Roofs need replacing.

    Cars fail.

    Healthcare needs change.

    Family members sometimes need help.

    People live longer than expected.

    None of this means you need enough money to survive every imaginable catastrophe.

    No realistic retirement plan can guarantee that.

    It means there should be some room between barely works and works comfortably.

    That margin might come from additional savings.

    It might come from spending that can be reduced temporarily.

    It might come from dependable income covering most essential expenses.

    It might come from insurance.

    It might come from delaying a major purchase during a difficult year.

    Different households will create resilience differently.

    The important thing is that the plan doesn’t require perfection.

    Enough Isn’t the Same as Maximum

    This distinction becomes increasingly important as retirement approaches.

    There is almost always a way to make the financial position stronger.

    Work another year.

    Save another $30,000.

    Pay off another debt.

    Wait another year to claim Social Security.

    Let the portfolio grow longer.

    Then do it again next year.

    From a purely financial perspective, more resources are generally preferable to fewer resources.

    But retirement isn’t a contest to accumulate the largest possible balance before you die.

    The purpose of the money is to support your life.

    At some point, the question changes from:

    Could we have more?

    to:

    Do we have enough for what we want to do?

    Those are very different questions.

    Define What Enough Is Supposed to Provide

    A useful definition of enough should include more than monthly bills.

    What kind of retirement are you trying to fund?

    Do you want to travel frequently?

    Remain in your current home?

    Move closer to family?

    Maintain two vehicles?

    Support hobbies?

    Help children or grandchildren?

    Give to charities?

    Eat at restaurants regularly?

    Own an RV?

    Spend part of the year somewhere else?

    Leave a substantial inheritance?

    None of these is a requirement for a successful retirement.

    But if something matters to you, it belongs in the conversation.

    Otherwise, you may calculate enough for a retirement you don’t actually want.

    Separate Security From Aspirations

    It can help to think about retirement spending in layers.

    The first layer supports the basic household.

    Housing.

    Food.

    Utilities.

    Insurance.

    Healthcare.

    Transportation.

    Taxes.

    The second layer supports the lifestyle.

    Travel.

    Restaurants.

    Entertainment.

    Hobbies.

    Home projects.

    Gifts.

    The third layer might include larger aspirations.

    Extensive travel.

    A second home.

    Major gifts to family.

    A large legacy.

    Expensive hobbies.

    The exact categories don’t matter.

    The distinction does.

    A retirement plan in which dependable income covers most essential spending and investments support flexible spending behaves differently from one in which investments must cover nearly every household expense.

    Understanding those layers can help you understand what enough actually means.

    Debt Changes the Number

    Suppose you enter retirement with a $2,000 monthly mortgage payment.

    That’s $24,000 a year your retirement income must support.

    If the mortgage is eliminated before retirement, the required income could fall substantially.

    The same principle applies to vehicle loans, credit cards, personal loans, and other obligations.

    This is why PreTire focuses on both sides of the retirement equation.

    Saving more increases the resources available.

    Reducing recurring obligations decreases the resources required.

    Both can move you toward enough.

    Sometimes eliminating an expense can improve retirement readiness as much as increasing an investment account.

    Enough Can Change

    Defining enough doesn’t mean carving one number into stone.

    Life changes.

    Inflation changes prices.

    Investment values change.

    Social Security estimates change.

    Housing decisions change.

    Health changes.

    Relationships change.

    Your idea of a satisfying retirement may change too.

    A retirement target at 45 shouldn’t necessarily remain unchanged at 55.

    Review it periodically.

    As retirement approaches, estimates should gradually be replaced by actual numbers and actual experience.

    That’s another reason the PreTire method is useful.

    If you’ve practiced living on your expected retirement income, you aren’t relying entirely on a projection.

    You have evidence.

    Be Careful With Comparison

    Someone you know may retire with $500,000.

    Someone else may insist that nobody should retire without $2 million.

    A financial article may tell you what the average household has saved.

    A retirement calculator may produce a target that looks frighteningly large.

    Those numbers can provide context.

    They can’t define enough for your household.

    The person with $500,000 may have a pension that covers nearly every normal expense.

    The person with $2 million may have no pension, high spending, significant debt, and an expensive lifestyle.

    Account balances are easy to compare.

    Retirements aren’t.

    There Is a Cost to Waiting for Certainty

    Uncertainty makes people uncomfortable.

    Retirement contains plenty of it.

    We don’t know exactly how long we’ll live.

    We don’t know what markets will do.

    We don’t know what inflation will be twenty years from now.

    We don’t know exactly what healthcare we’ll need.

    So it’s tempting to respond by accumulating more.

    Then more.

    Then a little more.

    Eventually, the pursuit of certainty can become its own risk.

    A person may spend healthy years working to protect against increasingly remote possibilities while postponing the retirement those savings were supposed to provide.

    There is no financial number that eliminates every possible future risk.

    Enough cannot mean guaranteed to survive anything that could ever happen.

    That standard may be impossible to reach.

    Enough Is a Decision Supported by Evidence

    A good Pretirement plan doesn’t tell you that retirement will be risk-free.

    It helps you understand the risks you’re accepting.

    You know what you actually spend.

    You know which expenses are likely to change.

    You know what Social Security and pensions are expected to provide.

    You understand what your savings need to contribute.

    You’ve considered taxes and healthcare.

    You’ve allowed room for irregular expenses.

    You’ve tested what happens when assumptions are less favorable.

    And, ideally, you’ve practiced living on something close to the income you expect to have.

    At that point, enough stops being a mysterious number.

    It becomes a conclusion supported by evidence.

    Know What You’re Trying to Achieve

    There will always be someone with more money.

    There will always be another financial milestone you could reach.

    And another year of work will almost always improve the numbers.

    None of those facts tells you whether you have enough.

    Enough is personal, but it doesn’t have to be vague.

    Start with the life you want to support.

    Understand what that life costs.

    Subtract the income that doesn’t need to come from savings.

    Determine what your investments need to provide.

    Build in reasonable room for uncertainty.

    Then test the result against real life.

    The goal isn’t to find the largest retirement number you can possibly reach.

    It’s to reach the point where your resources can reasonably support the retirement you actually want.

    Don’t ask how much a retiree should have. Ask what your retirement needs to provide, then determine what resources are required to provide it.

    That’s what enough means.

    Long View Media provides general educational information, not individualized financial, investment, tax, legal, or retirement advice. Retirement needs, investment returns, inflation, taxes, Social Security benefits, healthcare costs, and individual circumstances vary. Withdrawal rates and other financial assumptions are planning tools, not guarantees. Consider your own circumstances and appropriate professional guidance when making significant retirement decisions.